Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 37 analysts3.3% Above Target
VLO trades 3.3% above Wall Street's consensus target of $257.38.
Current Price$266.22
Average Target$257.38
Target
Current
Low$178.00
Median$271.00
High$312.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E9.2x
(Value)
PEG Ratio—
Implied Growth+105.7%
(High Growth)
Analyst Spread52.1%
(Moderate)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes VLO achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 9.2x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 37 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
VLO Price Target Analysis
Updated July 8, 2026As of July 8, 2026, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $257.38, based on estimates from 37 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $266.22, this represents a potential downside of -3.3%. The company has a market capitalization of $79.61B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $178.00 to a high of $312.00, representing a 52% spread in expectations. The median target of $271.00 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 22 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,14 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, VLO trades at a trailing P/E of 35.2x and forward P/E of 9.2x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +105.7% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $263.65, with bear and bull scenarios of $166.10 and $347.38 respectively. Model confidence stands at 48/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Energy stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+2.0%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
12.1x
(Value)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $77.8B | $266.33 | $259.38 | -2.6% | Buy | 8.7x | 33 |
 PSXPhillips 66 | $71.7B | $178.84 | $181.11 | +1.3% | Buy | 10.0x | 35 |
 PBFPBF Energy Inc. | $5.7B | $48.46 | $43.25 | -10.8% | Hold | 6.5x | 26 |
 DKDelek US Holdings, Inc. | $3.2B | $52.32 | $47.00 | -10.2% | Hold | 10.2x | 26 |
 PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. | $3.0B | $61.46 | $67.60 | +10.0% | Buy | 4.4x | 17 |
 CLMTCalumet, Inc. | $3.2B | $37.17 | $31.00 | -16.6% | Hold | — | 23 |
 CVXChevron Corporation | $346.4B | $173.94 | $200.75 | +15.4% | Buy | 12.3x | 53 |
 XOMExxon Mobil Corporation | $587.1B | $141.65 | $170.08 | +20.1% | Hold | 12.9x | 55 |
 CVICVR Energy, Inc. | $2.9B | $28.65 | $33.33 | +16.3% | Hold | 35.5x | 18 |
 DINOHF Sinclair Corporation | $13.3B | $73.94 | $71.67 | -3.1% | Buy | 8.1x | 16 |
VLO — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying VLO stock.
What is the VLO stock price target for 2026?
Wall Street's consensus price target for VLO is $257.38, -3.3% from its current price of $266.22. The below-market target from 37 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
Is VLO a buy, sell, or hold?
VLO has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 37 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 22 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $257.38 implies -3.3% downside from current levels.
Is VLO stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 9.1678x, VLO trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $257.38 implies -3.3% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can VLO stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $312 for VLO, while the most conservative target is $178. The consensus of $257.38 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $347 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover VLO stock?
VLO is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 37 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 1 have Strong Buy ratings, 21 have Buy ratings, 14 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the VLO stock forecast?
The 12-month VLO stock forecast based on 37 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $257.38, with estimates ranging from $178 (bear case) to $312 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $264, with bear/bull scenarios of $166/$347.
What is VLO's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates VLO's fair value at $264 (base case), with a bear case of $166 and bull case of $347. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 48/100.
What is VLO's forward P/E ratio?
VLO trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 35.2x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy VLO stock?
Analysts are cautious on VLO, with 1 Sell ratings and a price target of $257.38 (-3.3% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do VLO price targets vary so much?
VLO analyst price targets range from $178 to $312, a 52% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $257.38 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $166-$347 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Consensus-Based Analysis Tools
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