Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Hold
Based on 46 analysts14.7% Below Target
TOL trades 14.7% below Wall Street's consensus target of $173.88.
Current Price$151.64
Average Target$173.88
Target
Current
Low$156.00
Median$175.00
High$187.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E11.9x
(Value)
PEG Ratio0.37
(Undervalued)
Implied Growth-4.9%
(Declining)
Analyst Spread17.8%
(High Agreement)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes TOL achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 11.9x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 46 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
TOL Price Target Analysis
Updated July 8, 2026As of July 8, 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $173.88, based on estimates from 46 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $151.64, this represents a potential upside of +14.7%. The company has a market capitalization of $14.36B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $156.00 to a high of $187.00, representing a 18% spread in expectations. The median target of $175.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 22 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,22 rating it Hold, and 2 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, TOL trades at a trailing P/E of 11.2x and forward P/E of 11.9x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.37 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -4.9% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $169.68, with bear and bull scenarios of $106.90 and $223.58 respectively. Model confidence stands at 49/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Cyclical stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+5.3%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
16.8x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $44.2B | $155.72 | $163.86 | +5.2% | Hold | 14.7x | 52 |
 LENLennar Corporation | $21.5B | $86.74 | $89.17 | +2.8% | Buy | 15.4x | 50 |
 PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $25.0B | $129.92 | $144.50 | +11.2% | Hold | 13.0x | 44 |
 NVRNVR, Inc. | $18.1B | $6693.69 | $7465.33 | +11.5% | Buy | 18.7x | 24 |
 MHOM/I Homes, Inc. | $3.9B | $150.28 | $165.00 | +9.8% | Hold | 11.6x | 10 |
 SKYChampion Homes, Inc. | $4.6B | $82.95 | $93.00 | +12.1% | Buy | 22.0x | 8 |
 KBHKB Home | $3.7B | $58.68 | $62.00 | +5.7% | Hold | 17.7x | 44 |
 TPHTri Pointe Homes, Inc. | $4.0B | $46.96 | $47.00 | +0.1% | Hold | 24.5x | 22 |
 TMHCTaylor Morrison Home Corporation | $6.7B | $71.77 | $72.75 | +1.4% | Buy | 13.6x | 31 |
 CCSCentury Communities, Inc. | $1.9B | $65.42 | $60.67 | -7.3% | Buy | 16.7x | 11 |
TOL — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TOL stock.
What is the TOL stock price target for 2026?
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) has a consensus 12-month price target of $173.88, implying 14.7% upside from $151.64. The 46 analysts covering TOL see moderate appreciation potential.
Is TOL a buy, sell, or hold?
TOL has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 46 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 22 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $173.88 implies 14.7% upside from current levels.
Is TOL stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 11.8556x, TOL trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $173.88 implies 14.7% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can TOL stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $187 for TOL, while the most conservative target is $156. The consensus of $173.88 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $224 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover TOL stock?
TOL is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 46 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 1 have Strong Buy ratings, 21 have Buy ratings, 22 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the TOL stock forecast?
The 12-month TOL stock forecast based on 46 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $173.88, with estimates ranging from $156 (bear case) to $187 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $170, with bear/bull scenarios of $107/$224.
What is TOL's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates TOL's fair value at $170 (base case), with a bear case of $107 and bull case of $224. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 49/100.
What is TOL's forward P/E ratio?
TOL trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 11.2x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy TOL stock?
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on TOL, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $173.88 price target (14.7% upside). 22 of 46 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do TOL price targets vary so much?
TOL analyst price targets range from $156 to $187, a 18% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $173.88 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $107-$224 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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