Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 31 analysts1.3% Below Target
TMHC trades 1.3% below Wall Street's consensus target of $72.75.
Current Price$71.85
Average Target$72.75
Target
Current
Low$70.00
Median$72.50
High$76.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E13.6x
(Value)
PEG Ratio0.41
(Undervalued)
Implied Growth-23.2%
(Declining)
Analyst Spread8.2%
(High Agreement)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes TMHC achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 13.6x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 31 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
TMHC Price Target Analysis
Updated July 7, 2026As of July 7, 2026, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $72.75, based on estimates from 31 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $71.85, this represents a potential upside of +1.3%. The company has a market capitalization of $6.71B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $70.00 to a high of $76.00, representing a 8% spread in expectations. The median target of $72.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 15 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,15 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, TMHC trades at a trailing P/E of 9.2x and forward P/E of 13.6x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.41 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -23.2% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $81.90, with bear and bull scenarios of $51.59 and $107.91 respectively. Model confidence stands at 45/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Cyclical stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+8.2%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
17.6x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $44.5B | $156.88 | $163.86 | +4.4% | Hold | 14.8x | 52 |
 LENLennar Corporation | $21.8B | $87.65 | $89.17 | +1.7% | Buy | 15.6x | 50 |
 PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $25.2B | $131.38 | $144.50 | +10.0% | Hold | 13.1x | 44 |
 TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | $14.7B | $155.13 | $173.88 | +12.1% | Hold | 12.1x | 46 |
 NVRNVR, Inc. | $18.1B | $6693.66 | $7465.33 | +11.5% | Buy | 18.7x | 24 |
 MHOM/I Homes, Inc. | $3.9B | $152.37 | $165.00 | +8.3% | Hold | 11.8x | 10 |
 KBHKB Home | $3.7B | $59.78 | $62.00 | +3.7% | Hold | 18.0x | 44 |
 TPHTri Pointe Homes, Inc. | $4.0B | $46.96 | $47.00 | +0.1% | Hold | 24.5x | 22 |
 CVCOCavco Industries, Inc. | $4.5B | $586.51 | $700.00 | +19.4% | Buy | 24.6x | 2 |
 SKYChampion Homes, Inc. | $4.6B | $83.68 | $93.00 | +11.1% | Buy | 22.2x | 8 |
TMHC — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TMHC stock.
What is the TMHC stock price target for 2026?
The consensus price target for TMHC is $72.75, close to the current price of $71.85 (1.3% implied move). Based on 31 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
Is TMHC a buy, sell, or hold?
TMHC has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 31 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 15 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $72.75 implies 1.3% upside from current levels.
Is TMHC stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 13.5712x, TMHC trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $72.75 implies 1.3% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can TMHC stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $76 for TMHC, while the most conservative target is $70. The consensus of $72.75 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $108 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover TMHC stock?
TMHC is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 31 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 15 have Buy ratings, 15 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the TMHC stock forecast?
The 12-month TMHC stock forecast based on 31 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $72.75, with estimates ranging from $70 (bear case) to $76 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $82, with bear/bull scenarios of $52/$108.
What is TMHC's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates TMHC's fair value at $82 (base case), with a bear case of $52 and bull case of $108. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 45/100.
What is TMHC's forward P/E ratio?
TMHC trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 9.2x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy TMHC stock?
TMHC appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Buy" rating and minimal upside to the $72.75 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do TMHC price targets vary so much?
TMHC analyst price targets range from $70 to $76, a 8% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $72.75 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $52-$108 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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