Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Hold
Based on 5 analysts12.0% Above Target
SDHC trades 12.0% above Wall Street's consensus target of $14.00.
Current Price$15.91
Average Target$14.00
Low$14.00
Median$14.00
High$14.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E30.7x
(Growth Premium)
PEG Ratio—
Implied Growth-45.2%
(Declining)
Analyst Spread0.0%
(High Agreement)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes SDHC achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 30.7x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 5 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
SDHC Price Target Analysis
Updated July 6, 2026As of July 6, 2026, Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $14.00, based on estimates from 5 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $15.91, this represents a potential downside of -12.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $133M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $14.00 to a high of $14.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $14.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 0 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,4 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, SDHC trades at a trailing P/E of 13.7x and forward P/E of 30.7x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -45.2% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $12.85, with bear and bull scenarios of $8.09 and $16.93 respectively. Model confidence stands at 39/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Real Estate stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+11.6%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
17.2x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
9 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SKYChampion Homes, Inc. | $4.7B | $85.25 | $93.00 | +9.1% | Buy | 22.6x | 8 |
 LGIHLGI Homes, Inc. | $1.4B | $62.03 | $88.80 | +43.2% | Buy | 21.4x | 13 |
 CVCOCavco Industries, Inc. | $4.6B | $598.73 | $700.00 | +16.9% | Buy | 25.1x | 2 |
 GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc. | $3.4B | $79.25 | — | — | Hold | 13.6x | 12 |
 TMHCTaylor Morrison Home Corporation | $6.7B | $71.86 | $72.75 | +1.2% | Buy | 13.6x | 31 |
 DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $45.9B | $158.57 | $163.86 | +3.3% | Hold | 15.0x | 52 |
 LENLennar Corporation | $21.9B | $88.21 | $89.17 | +1.1% | Buy | 15.7x | 50 |
 PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $25.7B | $133.67 | $144.50 | +8.1% | Hold | 13.4x | 44 |
 TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | $14.9B | $157.14 | $173.88 | +10.7% | Hold | 12.3x | 46 |
 NVRNVR, Inc. | $18.2B | $6750.79 | $7465.33 | +10.6% | Buy | 18.9x | 24 |
SDHC — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying SDHC stock.
What is the SDHC stock price target for 2026?
SDHC's consensus price target is $14, -12.0% below the current price of $15.91. The 5 analysts tracking SDHC see downside risk at present valuations.
Is SDHC a buy, sell, or hold?
SDHC has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 5 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is leaning bearish, with 1 Sell/Strong Sell ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $14 implies -12.0% downside from current levels.
Is SDHC stock overvalued or undervalued?
SDHC trades at a forward P/E of 30.6551x, representing a moderate valuation. With analysts targeting $14 (-12.0% implied move), the stock appears close to fair value.
How high can SDHC stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $14 for SDHC, while the most conservative target is $14. The consensus of $14 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $17 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover SDHC stock?
SDHC is moderately covered, with 5 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 0 have Buy ratings, 4 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the SDHC stock forecast?
The 12-month SDHC stock forecast based on 5 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $14, with estimates ranging from $14 (bear case) to $14 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $13, with bear/bull scenarios of $8/$17.
What is SDHC's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates SDHC's fair value at $13 (base case), with a bear case of $8 and bull case of $17. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 39/100.
What is SDHC's forward P/E ratio?
SDHC trades at a forward P/E ratio of 30.7x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 13.7x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy SDHC stock?
Analysts are cautious on SDHC, with 1 Sell ratings and a price target of $14 (-12.0% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do SDHC price targets vary so much?
SDHC analyst price targets range from $14 to $14, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $14 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $8-$17 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Consensus-Based Analysis Tools
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Peer Comparison
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