Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 12 analysts39.9% Below Target
ARCO trades 39.9% below Wall Street's consensus target of $11.53.
Current Price$8.24
Average Target$11.53
Target
Current
Low$9.05
Median$11.53
High$14.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E11.2x
(Value)
PEG Ratio—
Implied Growth-33.8%
(Declining)
Analyst Spread42.9%
(Moderate)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes ARCO achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 11.2x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 12 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
ARCO Price Target Analysis
Updated July 8, 2026As of July 8, 2026, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $11.53, based on estimates from 12 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $8.24, this represents a potential upside of +39.9%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.74B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $9.05 to a high of $14.00, representing a 43% spread in expectations. The median target of $11.53 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 8 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, ARCO trades at a trailing P/E of 8.2x and forward P/E of 11.2x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -33.8% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $9.98, with bear and bull scenarios of $6.29 and $13.15 respectively. Model confidence stands at 40/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Cyclical stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+16.7%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
23.6x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
9 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | $46.3B | $167.49 | $178.00 | +6.3% | Hold | 24.8x | 51 |
 JACKJack in the Box Inc. | $299M | $15.68 | $16.23 | +3.5% | Hold | 4.6x | 41 |
 DENNDenny's Corporation | $322M | $6.25 | $7.00 | +12.0% | Buy | 15.0x | 21 |
 FATFAT Brands Inc. | $3M | $0.16 | — | — | — | — | — |
 MCDMcDonald's Corporation | $200.5B | $282.21 | $345.67 | +22.5% | Buy | 21.7x | 62 |
 WENThe Wendy's Company | $1.5B | $7.78 | $7.95 | +2.2% | Hold | 13.6x | 51 |
 RRGBRed Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. | $122M | $6.60 | $8.00 | +21.2% | Hold | — | 38 |
 SHAKShake Shack Inc. | $2.2B | $54.92 | $90.58 | +64.9% | Buy | 47.9x | 37 |
 SBUXStarbucks Corporation | $118.1B | $103.61 | $108.50 | +4.7% | Buy | 43.3x | 59 |
ARCO — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ARCO stock.
What is the ARCO stock price target for 2026?
The consensus Wall Street price target for ARCO is $11.53, representing 39.9% upside from the current price of $8.24. With 12 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
Is ARCO a buy, sell, or hold?
ARCO has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 12 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 8 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $11.53 implies 39.9% upside from current levels.
Is ARCO stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 11.1926x, ARCO trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $11.53 implies 39.9% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can ARCO stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $14 for ARCO, while the most conservative target is $9.05. The consensus of $11.53 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $13 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover ARCO stock?
ARCO is moderately covered, with 12 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 8 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the ARCO stock forecast?
The 12-month ARCO stock forecast based on 12 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $11.53, with estimates ranging from $9.05 (bear case) to $14 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $10, with bear/bull scenarios of $6/$13.
What is ARCO's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ARCO's fair value at $10 (base case), with a bear case of $6 and bull case of $13. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 40/100.
What is ARCO's forward P/E ratio?
ARCO trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 8.2x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy ARCO stock?
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on ARCO, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $11.53 price target (39.9% upside). 8 of 12 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do ARCO price targets vary so much?
ARCO analyst price targets range from $9.05 to $14, a 43% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $11.53 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $6-$13 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Consensus-Based Analysis Tools
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