The Motley Fool·1 day ago
Upstart Stock Analysis: Buy or Sell This AI Stock?This AI platform has proven its business model can be lucrative.
Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)Earnings, Financials & Key Ratios
UPST•NASDAQ
$33.06
73.5× P/E·Price updated Jul 7, 2026
AboutUpstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI-enabled bank partners. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.Show more
- EBITDA$79M+173.4%
- Net Income$54M+141.7%
- EPS (Diluted)0.45+131.3%
- Gross Margin95.21%+2.5%
- EBITDA Margin7.36%+146.2%
- Operating Margin5.05%+126.6%
- Net Margin4.98%+126.2%
- ROE7.49%+136.9%
UPST Price & Volume
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) stock price & volume — 10-year historical chart
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Cyclical Funding Volatility Strains Upstart Profitability Trajectory
Investment Thesis • Updated 2026Q1
VerdictNegative
Growth:Expanding
Profitability:Strained
Financial:Vulnerable
Cash Flow:Mixed
Primary Risk:Cyclical Funding Market Volatility
Key Thesis Takeaways
- Upstart's reliance on third-party capital to fuel its loan origination platform creates significant earnings volatility, as evidenced by the return to a $6.6 million net loss in 2026Q1.
- While the company maintains gross margins consistently above 90%, the inability to achieve sustained operating leverage and the persistent $30 million-plus quarterly stock-based compensation expense suggest structural profitability challenges.
- Investors should monitor the company's $1.9 billion debt load and the risks associated with retaining loans on the balance sheet during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.
Verdict Logic
the company's reliance on external funding and the persistent negative retained earnings of $364.2 million as of 2026Q1 indicate significant long-term solvency and profitability risks.
UPST Growth Metrics
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) revenue, earnings & EPS growth — 3, 5 & 10-year CAGR
Revenue CAGR
10 Years-
5 Years36.13%
3 Years8.02%
TTM-
Profit CAGR
10 Years-
5 Years55.04%
3 Years-
TTM174.37%
EPS CAGR
10 Years-
5 Years14.37%
3 Years-
TTM153.87%
Return on Capital
10 Years-1.9%
5 Years-2.88%
3 Years-6.83%
Last Year2.42%
UPST Recent Earnings
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) EPS & revenue vs analyst estimates — last 4 quarters
●Beat EPS 9/12 qtrs (75%)●Beat Revenue 8/12 qtrs (67%)
Q2 2026Latest
May 5, 2026Metric
Actual
Est
EPS
$0.07-117.9%
$0.39
Rev
$308M+2.3%
$301M
Q1 2026
Feb 10, 2026Metric
Actual
Est
EPS
$0.46-2.1%
$0.47
Rev
$296M+2.6%
$288M
Q4 2025
Nov 4, 2025Metric
Actual
Est
EPS
$0.52+23.8%
$0.42
Rev
$286M-0.9%
$289M
Q3 2025
Aug 5, 2025Metric
Actual
Est
EPS
$0.36+33.3%
$0.27
Rev
$257M-8.4%
$281M
| Quarter | Date | EPS (Act vs Est) | Revenue (Act vs Est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026Latest | May 5, 2026 | $0.07vs $0.39-117.9% | $308Mvs $301M+2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | Feb 10, 2026 | $0.46vs $0.47-2.1% | $296Mvs $288M+2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | Nov 4, 2025 | $0.52vs $0.42+23.8% | $286Mvs $289M-0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | Aug 5, 2025 | $0.36vs $0.27+33.3% | $257Mvs $281M-8.4% |
Based on last 12 quarters of dataView full earnings history →
Latest UPST News
Recent stock market news and headlines for Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)
Business Wire·1 day ago
Upstart to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 4, 2026BURLINGAME, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Upstart to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 4, 2026.
The Motley Fool·1 day ago
Stock Market Today, July 6: Southeast Asian Mobility Upstart Grab Falls as Uber CEO Exits BoardOn July 6, 2026, the ride-hailing super-app's stock dropped 1.28% after Dara Khosrowshahi stepped down from its board.
Zacks Investment Research·1 day ago
Fintech Stocks in Focus as AI and Digital Payments Reshape FinanceRobinhood, SoFi and Upstart highlight how fintech is redefining payments, lending and investing with AI, blockchain and digital wallets.
Business Wire·2 days ago
Upstart Publishes June 2026 Origination VolumeBURLINGAME, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST), the leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, today published its monthly origination volume for June 2026. For historical data see upstart.com/volume.
Peers Comparison
Key metrics vs top competitors for Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)
| Company | Price | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | Rev Growth (1Y) | Net Margin | ROE | Div Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $33.06 | $3.16B | 73.47 | 58.87% | 4.98% | 7.49% | — | |
| $19.21 | $2.21B | 16.70 | 14.97% | 10.17% | 9.47% | — | |
| $17.75 | $22.77B | 45.51 | 28.78% | 11.22% | 6.25% | — | |
| $83.62 | $27.85B | 557.47 | 38.8% | 11.95% | 11.17% | — | |
| $5.68 | $259.79M | 10.72 | 19.49% | 2.9% | 4.63% | — | |
| $3.13 | $370.02M | -87.68 | 288.02% | -5.95% | -7.04% | — |
Compare UPST vs Peers
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.
UPST SEC Filings & Documents
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)
8-K Announcements
6Material company update
May 5, 2026·SEC
Material company update
Mar 10, 2026·SEC
Material company update
Feb 19, 2026·SEC
10-K Annual Reports
210-Q Quarterly Reports
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UPST Frequently Asked Questions
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained
Growth & Financials
What is Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s revenue?
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) reported $1.16B in revenue for fiscal year 2025.
How fast is Upstart Holdings, Inc. growing?
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) grew revenue by 58.9% over the past year. This is strong growth.
Is UPST profitable?
Yes, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) is profitable, generating $49.4M in net income for fiscal year 2025 (5.0% net margin).
Dividend & Returns
What is UPST's return on equity?
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has a return on equity (ROE) of 7.5%. This is below average, suggesting room for improvement.
What is Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) had negative free cash flow of $146.5M in fiscal year 2025, likely due to heavy capital investments.