12.7% Below Target

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has a consensus 12-month price target of $37.25, implying 12.7% upside from $33.06. The 22 analysts covering UPST see moderate appreciation potential.

UPST has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 22 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 10 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $37.25 implies 12.7% upside from current levels.

UPST trades at a forward P/E of 28.678x, representing a moderate valuation. With analysts targeting $37.25 (12.7% implied move), the stock appears reasonably valued with upside.

The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $46 for UPST, while the most conservative target is $30. The consensus of $37.25 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $85 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.

UPST is well covered by analysts, with 22 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 10 have Buy ratings, 10 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.

The 12-month UPST stock forecast based on 22 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $37.25, with estimates ranging from $30 (bear case) to $46 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $64, with bear/bull scenarios of $41/$85.

Our quantitative valuation model calculates UPST's fair value at $64 (base case), with a bear case of $41 and bull case of $85. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 56/100.

UPST trades at a forward P/E ratio of 28.7x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 73.5x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.

Wall Street analysts are optimistic on UPST, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $37.25 price target (12.7% upside). 10 of 22 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

UPST analyst price targets range from $30 to $46, a 43% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $37.25 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $41-$85 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.