SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI)
Valuation Overview•Is SoFi Technologies, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Fragile underlying quality score of 45/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
SOFI struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($3.0B) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 12.6%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | +28.8% | — | — | — | |
| EBITDA | $267.1M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $166.7M | -3.5% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.12 | +0.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $50.3M | -210.5% | +18.5% | -51.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 76.0% | 71.9% | 78.3% | 71.7% |
| Operating Margin | 12.6% | 2.3% | -11.1% | -21.8% |
| Net Margin | 11.2% | 4.4% | -9.9% | -19.3% |
| FCF Margin | -49.2% | -123.9% | -183.6% | -103.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.12 | $0.12 | +0.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.12 | $0.13 | +12.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.08 | $0.11 | +32.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.06 | $0.08 | +30.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.03 | $0.06 | +84.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.04 | $0.05 | +25.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.04 | $0.05 | +16.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.00 | $0.01 | +115.5% |
Total return is -7.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -11.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -35.4% | -44.3% | — |
| 1Y | -7.7% | -11.6% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +28.3% | +8.5% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -3.7% | -15.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +5.1% | -8.6% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.4x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) valuation, health, and returns.
SoFi Technologies, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -58.5% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $7.44)
SoFi Technologies, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $7.44 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $17.70 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $21.40 (implying +20.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
SoFi Technologies, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 45/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -0.3 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.6%.
SoFi Technologies, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
SoFi Technologies, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +28.8% 1Y revenue growth and +0.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 27 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 11-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +20.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for SoFi Technologies, Inc. include: -53.0% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.48x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.48x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.