First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 15 analysts34.8% Below Target
FWRG trades 34.8% below Wall Street's consensus target of $17.33.
Current Price$12.86
Average Target$17.33
Target
Current
Low$14.00
Median$19.00
High$19.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E74.8x
(High Premium)
PEG Ratio—
Implied Growth-40.1%
(Declining)
Analyst Spread28.9%
(High Agreement)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes FWRG achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 74.8x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 15 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
FWRG Price Target Analysis
Updated July 8, 2026As of July 8, 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $17.33, based on estimates from 15 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $12.86, this represents a potential upside of +34.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $793M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $14.00 to a high of $19.00, representing a 29% spread in expectations. The median target of $19.00 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 13 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,2 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, FWRG trades at a trailing P/E of 41.5x and forward P/E of 74.8x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -40.1% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $14.86, with bear and bull scenarios of $9.36 and $19.58 respectively. Model confidence stands at 39/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Cyclical stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+5.5%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
20.0x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DENNDenny's Corporation | $322M | $6.25 | $7.00 | +12.0% | Buy | 15.0x | 21 |
 CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | $1.1B | $49.50 | $49.00 | -1.0% | Hold | — | 31 |
 BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc. | $1.3B | $60.26 | $41.00 | -32.0% | Buy | 27.2x | 31 |
 CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $3.9B | $77.74 | $65.50 | -15.7% | Hold | 19.2x | 48 |
 RRGBRed Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. | $122M | $6.60 | $8.00 | +21.2% | Hold | — | 38 |
 DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | $23.4B | $204.50 | $229.64 | +12.3% | Buy | 19.2x | 59 |
 BLMNBloomin' Brands, Inc. | $680M | $7.98 | $8.83 | +10.7% | Hold | 9.1x | 28 |
 EATBrinker International, Inc. | $7.5B | $175.30 | $187.92 | +7.2% | Buy | 16.3x | 47 |
 TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | $12.3B | $187.03 | $191.46 | +2.4% | Hold | 29.1x | 44 |
 PTLOPortillo's Inc. | $346M | $4.80 | $6.63 | +38.1% | Hold | 25.0x | 12 |
FWRG — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying FWRG stock.
What is the FWRG stock price target for 2026?
The consensus Wall Street price target for FWRG is $17.33, representing 34.8% upside from the current price of $12.86. With 15 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
Is FWRG a buy, sell, or hold?
FWRG has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 15 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 13 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $17.33 implies 34.8% upside from current levels.
Is FWRG stock overvalued or undervalued?
At a forward P/E of 74.7674x, FWRG trades at a premium valuation. The consensus price target of $17.33 (34.8% upside) suggests analysts still see growth justifying the multiple.
How high can FWRG stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $19 for FWRG, while the most conservative target is $14. The consensus of $17.33 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $20 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover FWRG stock?
FWRG is well covered by analysts, with 15 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 1 have Strong Buy ratings, 12 have Buy ratings, 2 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the FWRG stock forecast?
The 12-month FWRG stock forecast based on 15 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $17.33, with estimates ranging from $14 (bear case) to $19 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $15, with bear/bull scenarios of $9/$20.
What is FWRG's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates FWRG's fair value at $15 (base case), with a bear case of $9 and bull case of $20. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 39/100.
What is FWRG's forward P/E ratio?
FWRG trades at a forward P/E ratio of 74.8x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 41.5x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy FWRG stock?
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on FWRG, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $17.33 price target (34.8% upside). 13 of 15 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do FWRG price targets vary so much?
FWRG analyst price targets range from $14 to $19, a 29% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $17.33 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $9-$20 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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