The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Hold
Based on 48 analysts14.8% Above Target
CAKE trades 14.8% above Wall Street's consensus target of $65.50.
Current Price$76.89
Average Target$65.50
Target
Current
Low$53.00
Median$65.00
High$75.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E19.0x
(Fair)
PEG Ratio—
Implied Growth+18.7%
(Moderate)
Analyst Spread33.6%
(Moderate)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes CAKE achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 19.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 48 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
CAKE Price Target Analysis
Updated July 7, 2026As of July 7, 2026, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $65.50, based on estimates from 48 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $76.89, this represents a potential downside of -14.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $3.82B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $53.00 to a high of $75.00, representing a 34% spread in expectations. The median target of $65.00 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 15 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,27 rating it Hold, and 6 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, CAKE trades at a trailing P/E of 25.0x and forward P/E of 19.0x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +18.7% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $87.90, with bear and bull scenarios of $55.38 and $115.82 respectively. Model confidence stands at 56/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Cyclical stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+8.9%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
27.2x
(Growth Premium)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | $23.3B | $203.22 | $229.64 | +13.0% | Buy | 19.1x | 59 |
 TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | $12.2B | $186.01 | $191.46 | +2.9% | Hold | 29.0x | 44 |
 BLMNBloomin' Brands, Inc. | $684M | $8.03 | $8.83 | +10.0% | Hold | 9.1x | 28 |
 EATBrinker International, Inc. | $7.6B | $176.28 | $187.92 | +6.6% | Buy | 16.4x | 47 |
 DENNDenny's Corporation | $322M | $6.25 | $7.00 | +12.0% | Buy | 15.0x | 21 |
 BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc. | $1.2B | $59.19 | $41.00 | -30.7% | Buy | 26.7x | 31 |
 CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | $1.1B | $50.57 | $49.00 | -3.1% | Hold | — | 31 |
 RRGBRed Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. | $129M | $6.98 | $8.00 | +14.6% | Hold | — | 38 |
 FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | $797M | $12.93 | $17.33 | +34.0% | Buy | 75.2x | 15 |
 KRUSKura Sushi USA, Inc. | $682M | $56.11 | $72.83 | +29.8% | Buy | — | 13 |
CAKE — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying CAKE stock.
What is the CAKE stock price target for 2026?
CAKE's consensus price target is $65.5, -14.8% below the current price of $76.89. The 48 analysts tracking CAKE see downside risk at present valuations.
Is CAKE a buy, sell, or hold?
CAKE has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 48 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 27 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $65.5 implies -14.8% downside from current levels.
Is CAKE stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 19.0171x, CAKE trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $65.5 implies -14.8% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can CAKE stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $75 for CAKE, while the most conservative target is $53. The consensus of $65.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $116 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover CAKE stock?
CAKE is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 48 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 15 have Buy ratings, 27 recommend Hold, and 6 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the CAKE stock forecast?
The 12-month CAKE stock forecast based on 48 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $65.5, with estimates ranging from $53 (bear case) to $75 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $88, with bear/bull scenarios of $55/$116.
What is CAKE's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates CAKE's fair value at $88 (base case), with a bear case of $55 and bull case of $116. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 56/100.
What is CAKE's forward P/E ratio?
CAKE trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 25.0x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy CAKE stock?
Analysts are cautious on CAKE, with 6 Sell ratings and a price target of $65.5 (-14.8% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do CAKE price targets vary so much?
CAKE analyst price targets range from $53 to $75, a 34% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $65.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $55-$116 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Consensus-Based Analysis Tools
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