Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 49 analysts0.8% Above Target
DLTR trades 0.8% above Wall Street's consensus target of $121.64.
Current Price$122.65
Average Target$121.64
Target
Current
Low$85.00
Median$125.50
High$165.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E17.6x
(Fair)
PEG Ratio17.53
(Expensive)
Implied Growth+6.7%
(Low)
Analyst Spread65.8%
(Wide Disagreement)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes DLTR achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 17.6x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 49 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
DLTR Price Target Analysis
Updated July 8, 2026As of July 8, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $121.64, based on estimates from 49 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $122.65, this represents a potential downside of -0.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $23.57B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $85.00 to a high of $165.00, representing a 66% spread in expectations. The median target of $125.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 25 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,18 rating it Hold, and 6 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, DLTR trades at a trailing P/E of 20.6x and forward P/E of 17.6x. The forward PEG ratio of 17.53 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow +6.7% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $137.38, with bear and bull scenarios of $86.55 and $181.01 respectively. Model confidence stands at 57/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Defensive stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+10.9%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
22.5x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DGDollar General Corporation | $25.5B | $115.43 | $137.89 | +19.5% | Buy | 15.7x | 51 |
 FIVEFive Below, Inc. | $9.7B | $176.25 | $237.73 | +34.9% | Buy | 27.7x | 50 |
 GOGrocery Outlet Holding Corp. | $1.0B | $10.21 | $11.00 | +7.7% | Hold | 20.1x | 23 |
 WMTWalmart Inc. | $889.1B | $111.54 | $139.44 | +25.0% | Buy | 38.4x | 66 |
 TGTTarget Corporation | $59.2B | $130.29 | $136.80 | +5.0% | Buy | 15.5x | 60 |
 PSMTPriceSmart, Inc. | $5.9B | $191.95 | $83.50 | -56.5% | Hold | 35.3x | 8 |
 OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | $4.1B | $68.03 | $114.44 | +68.2% | Buy | 17.6x | 28 |
 PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $356.9B | $152.75 | $159.00 | +4.1% | Buy | 22.2x | 52 |
 KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $38.1B | $114.74 | $106.50 | -7.2% | Hold | 15.2x | 31 |
 CLXThe Clorox Company | $11.8B | $97.41 | $105.50 | +8.3% | Hold | 17.6x | 28 |
DLTR — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying DLTR stock.
What is the DLTR stock price target for 2026?
Wall Street's consensus price target for DLTR is $121.64, -0.8% from its current price of $122.65. The below-market target from 49 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
Is DLTR a buy, sell, or hold?
DLTR has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 49 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 25 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $121.64 implies -0.8% downside from current levels.
Is DLTR stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 17.6404x, DLTR trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $121.64 implies -0.8% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can DLTR stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $165 for DLTR, while the most conservative target is $85. The consensus of $121.64 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $181 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover DLTR stock?
DLTR is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 49 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 1 have Strong Buy ratings, 24 have Buy ratings, 18 recommend Hold, and 6 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the DLTR stock forecast?
The 12-month DLTR stock forecast based on 49 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $121.64, with estimates ranging from $85 (bear case) to $165 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $137, with bear/bull scenarios of $87/$181.
What is DLTR's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates DLTR's fair value at $137 (base case), with a bear case of $87 and bull case of $181. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 57/100.
What is DLTR's forward P/E ratio?
DLTR trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 20.6x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy DLTR stock?
Analysts are cautious on DLTR, with 6 Sell ratings and a price target of $121.64 (-0.8% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do DLTR price targets vary so much?
DLTR analyst price targets range from $85 to $165, a 66% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $121.64 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $87-$181 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Consensus-Based Analysis Tools
Intrinsic Valuation
DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.
Check Valuation
Historical Returns
10-year return with dividends reinvested.
Calculate
DCA Calculator
See how regular investing compounds over time.
Run Numbers
Peer Comparison
Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.
Compare