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PROVProvident Financial Holdings, Inc.
$17.11$107M
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PROV logo

Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Price Target Analysis

Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Hold
Based on 10 analysts

0.6% Above Target

PROV trades 0.6% above Wall Street's consensus target of $17.00.

Current Price$17.11
Average Target$17.00
Low$17.00
Median$17.00
High$17.00

Analyst Target Range

Forward P/E16.5x
(Fair)
PEG Ratio—
Implied Growth+9.4%
(Low)
Analyst Spread0.0%
(High Agreement)

Price Forecast (1 Year)

Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path

Current$17.11
Consensus$17.00
High$17.00
Low$17.00

Consensus Scenario Assumptions

The base valuation assumes PROV achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 16.5x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 10 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.

Analyst Ratings Distribution

Breakdown of 10 published analyst recommendations for PROV

80% hold / mixed conviction
+10
BearishBullish
Weighted analyst sentiment score based on 10 ratings
ConsensusHold
Coverage10 Analysts
Net Score+10
Bull / Bear20% / 0%
Strong Buy00%
Buy220%
Hold880%
Sell00%
Strong Sell00%
Strong Buy
00%
Buy
220%
Hold
880%
Sell
00%
Strong Sell
00%
Recommendation Mix20% Buy · 80% Hold · 0% Sell
Buy (2)Hold (8)Sell (0)

PROV Price Target Analysis

Updated July 8, 2026

As of July 8, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $17.00, based on estimates from 10 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $17.11, this represents a potential downside of -0.6%. The company has a market capitalization of $107M.

Analyst price targets range from a low of $17.00 to a high of $17.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $17.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.

The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 2 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,8 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.

From a valuation perspective, PROV trades at a trailing P/E of 18.4x and forward P/E of 16.5x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +9.4% over the next year.

Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $15.82, with bear and bull scenarios of $9.96 and $20.84 respectively. Model confidence stands at 41/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.

Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Financial Services stocks.

Analyst Sentiment Comparison

Industry Peer Analysis
Avg Peer Upside
+0.7%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
14.7x
(Value)
Peers with Coverage
9 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
CompanyMarket CapPriceTargetUpside PotentialRatingFwd P/EAnalysts
WAFD logo
WAFDWaFd, Inc.
$2.8B$37.65$35.00
-7.0%
Hold11.5x11
HOMB logo
HOMBHome Bancshares, Inc.
$5.8B$28.66$31.50
+9.9%
Hold11.6x19
NWBI logo
NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc.
$2.2B$15.03$15.50
+3.1%
Hold10.9x14
KRNY logo
KRNYKearny Financial Corp.
$586M$9.31$10.50
+12.8%
Hold14.9x5
BSVN logo
BSVNBank7 Corp.
$493M$51.75$57.00
+10.1%
Buy11.6x3
CFFN logo
CFFNCapitol Federal Financial, Inc.
$1.1B$8.37$7.00
-16.4%
Hold12.7x5
TRST logo
TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NY
$956M$54.71——Hold19.1x3
HFWA logo
HFWAHeritage Financial Corporation
$1.0B$29.44$31.33
+6.4%
Buy14.3x14
FFIC logo
FFICFlushing Financial Corporation
$524M$15.47$16.75
+8.3%
Hold11.0x10
CLBK logo
CLBKColumbia Financial, Inc.
$2.2B$21.46$17.00
-20.8%
Hold29.0x2

PROV — Frequently Asked Questions

Quick answers to the most common questions about buying PROV stock.

What is the PROV stock price target for 2026?

Wall Street's consensus price target for PROV is $17, -0.6% from its current price of $17.11. The below-market target from 10 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.

Is PROV a buy, sell, or hold?

PROV has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 10 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 8 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $17 implies -0.6% downside from current levels.

Is PROV stock overvalued or undervalued?

With a forward P/E of 16.5314x, PROV trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $17 implies -0.6% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.

How high can PROV stock go?

The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $17 for PROV, while the most conservative target is $17. The consensus of $17 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $21 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.

How many analysts cover PROV stock?

PROV is moderately covered, with 10 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 2 have Buy ratings, 8 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.

What is the PROV stock forecast?

The 12-month PROV stock forecast based on 10 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $17, with estimates ranging from $17 (bear case) to $17 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $16, with bear/bull scenarios of $10/$21.

What is PROV's fair value based on fundamentals?

Our quantitative valuation model calculates PROV's fair value at $16 (base case), with a bear case of $10 and bull case of $21. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 41/100.

What is PROV's forward P/E ratio?

PROV trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16.5x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 18.4x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.

Should I buy PROV stock?

Analysts are cautious on PROV, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $17 (-0.6% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Why do PROV price targets vary so much?

PROV analyst price targets range from $17 to $17, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $17 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $10-$21 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.

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