MPAA trades 40.1% below Wall Street's consensus target of $20.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes MPAA achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 19.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 7 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of July 8, 2026, Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $20.00, based on estimates from 7 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $14.28, this represents a potential upside of +40.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $270M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $20.00 to a high of $20.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $20.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 6 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,1 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, MPAA trades at a trailing P/E of 23.0x and forward P/E of 19.0x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +36.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $4.60, with bear and bull scenarios of $2.90 and $6.06 respectively. Model confidence stands at 36/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DORMDorman Products, Inc. | $4.2B | $139.64 | $140.00 | +0.3% | Buy | 16.9x | 16 |
SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc. | $829M | $37.44 | — | — | Buy | 8.5x | 12 |
STRTStrattec Security Corporation | $346M | $82.69 | — | — | Buy | 13.4x | 1 |
LKQLKQ Corporation | $6.7B | $26.21 | $34.00 | +29.7% | Buy | 8.8x | 22 |
PRTSCarParts.com, Inc. | $49M | $6.14 | — | — | — | — | — |
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $72.5B | $86.65 | $110.64 | +27.7% | Buy | 26.6x | 47 |
AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $50.3B | $3074.86 | $3909.09 | +27.1% | Buy | 20.3x | 45 |
AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc. | $3.4B | $55.86 | $59.64 | +6.8% | Hold | 19.1x | 44 |
GPCGenuine Parts Company | $17.9B | $128.67 | $142.40 | +10.7% | Hold | 16.7x | 22 |
ALVAutoliv, Inc. | $8.9B | $118.96 | $129.86 | +9.2% | Hold | 11.3x | 37 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MPAA stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for MPAA is $20, representing 40.1% upside from the current price of $14.28. With 7 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
MPAA has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 7 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 6 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $20 implies 40.1% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 19.04x, MPAA trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $20 implies 40.1% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $20 for MPAA, while the most conservative target is $20. The consensus of $20 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $6 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
MPAA is moderately covered, with 7 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 6 have Buy ratings, 1 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month MPAA stock forecast based on 7 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $20, with estimates ranging from $20 (bear case) to $20 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $5, with bear/bull scenarios of $3/$6.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MPAA's fair value at $5 (base case), with a bear case of $3 and bull case of $6. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 36/100.
MPAA trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 23.0x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on MPAA, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $20 price target (40.1% upside). 6 of 7 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
MPAA analyst price targets range from $20 to $20, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $20 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $3-$6 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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