Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 7 analysts67.1% Below Target
HLMN trades 67.1% below Wall Street's consensus target of $13.00.
Current Price$7.78
Average Target$13.00
Low$13.00
Median$13.00
High$13.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E13.3x
(Value)
PEG Ratio—
Implied Growth+219.4%
(High Growth)
Analyst Spread0.0%
(High Agreement)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes HLMN achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 13.3x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 7 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
HLMN Price Target Analysis
Updated July 8, 2026As of July 8, 2026, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $13.00, based on estimates from 7 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $7.78, this represents a potential upside of +67.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.53B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $13.00 to a high of $13.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $13.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 4 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, HLMN trades at a trailing P/E of 38.9x and forward P/E of 13.3x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +219.4% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $6.38, with bear and bull scenarios of $4.02 and $8.41 respectively. Model confidence stands at 47/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Industrials stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+26.7%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
20.4x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | $4.9B | $109.99 | $161.71 | +47.0% | Buy | 25.5x | 15 |
 FERGFerguson plc | $43.5B | $223.18 | $294.50 | +32.0% | Buy | 19.8x | 14 |
 POOLPool Corporation | $7.7B | $209.62 | $270.17 | +28.9% | Buy | 18.9x | 21 |
 SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $14.2B | $91.34 | $88.67 | -2.9% | Hold | 20.1x | 37 |
 ACCOACCO Brands Corporation | $375M | $4.06 | $8.00 | +97.0% | Hold | 4.7x | 7 |
 LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $14.0B | $255.81 | $304.00 | +18.8% | Hold | 23.4x | 22 |
 ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $78.1B | $271.09 | $274.29 | +1.2% | Hold | 24.0x | 28 |
 MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $6.7B | $120.07 | $132.80 | +10.6% | Hold | 27.3x | 29 |
 HDThe Home Depot, Inc. | $343.8B | $345.21 | $373.92 | +8.3% | Buy | 23.1x | 62 |
 LOWLowe's Companies, Inc. | $123.9B | $220.90 | $279.18 | +26.4% | Buy | 17.7x | 51 |
HLMN — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying HLMN stock.
What is the HLMN stock price target for 2026?
The consensus Wall Street price target for HLMN is $13, representing 67.1% upside from the current price of $7.78. With 7 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
Is HLMN a buy, sell, or hold?
HLMN has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 7 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 4 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $13 implies 67.1% upside from current levels.
Is HLMN stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 13.3471x, HLMN trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $13 implies 67.1% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can HLMN stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $13 for HLMN, while the most conservative target is $13. The consensus of $13 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $8 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover HLMN stock?
HLMN is moderately covered, with 7 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 4 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the HLMN stock forecast?
The 12-month HLMN stock forecast based on 7 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $13, with estimates ranging from $13 (bear case) to $13 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $6, with bear/bull scenarios of $4/$8.
What is HLMN's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates HLMN's fair value at $6 (base case), with a bear case of $4 and bull case of $8. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 47/100.
What is HLMN's forward P/E ratio?
HLMN trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13.3x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 38.9x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy HLMN stock?
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on HLMN, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $13 price target (67.1% upside). 4 of 7 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do HLMN price targets vary so much?
HLMN analyst price targets range from $13 to $13, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $13 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $4-$8 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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