National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Financials

The top-line trend is unmistakably decelerating, with the trailing twelve-month revenue growth rate hovering near zero. This suggests that the LaCroix brand's organic momentum has stalled, and the company is not benefiting from any meaningful volume or pricing gains. The lack of growth in a category that continues to expand indicates market share losses to competitors like Bubly and private-label alternatives.

The sharp sequential decline in gross margin from 40.9% to 31.8% is alarming and warrants close scrutiny. While the 2026Q3 margin may have benefited from favorable input costs or mix, the 2026Q4 figure suggests that the company is either absorbing higher commodity costs or increasing trade spending to defend shelf space. Investors should monitor whether this is a temporary blip or the start of a structural compression.

The operating margin dropped to 14.0% in 2026Q4, the lowest in the series, from 18.3% a year earlier. This suggests that the company's fixed cost base, particularly in manufacturing and distribution, is creating negative operating leverage when volumes decline. The inability to flex SG&A downward in proportion to revenue is a concern for profitability if the revenue trend persists.

The primary cost driver is clearly COGS, which has shown significant volatility, ranging from 59.1% to 68.2% of revenue over the past ten quarters. This volatility likely reflects aluminum price fluctuations and the company's hedging practices. SG&A has been relatively stable at around 18-19% of revenue, indicating disciplined overhead control, but the COGS swings are the dominant factor in margin variability.