EARN trades 59.5% below Wall Street's consensus target of $7.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes EARN achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 5.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 7 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of July 7, 2026, Ellington Credit Company (EARN) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $7.00, based on estimates from 7 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $4.39, this represents a potential upside of +59.5%. The company has a market capitalization of $165M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $6.00 to a high of $8.00, representing a 29% spread in expectations. The median target of $7.00 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,6 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, EARN trades at a trailing P/E of -11.6x and forward P/E of 5.0x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +683.9% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $1.53, with bear and bull scenarios of $0.96 and $2.02 respectively. Model confidence stands at 49/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCEllington Financial Inc. | $1.4B | $13.58 | $13.50 | -0.6% | Buy | 7.0x | 13 |
AGNCAGNC Investment Corp. | $12.8B | $11.17 | $11.25 | +0.7% | Hold | 7.2x | 35 |
NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc. | $16.8B | $22.99 | $24.33 | +5.8% | Buy | 7.7x | 28 |
MFAMFA Financial, Inc. | $953M | $9.33 | $10.50 | +12.5% | Hold | 7.4x | 23 |
MITTTPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc | $246M | $7.75 | $9.25 | +19.4% | Buy | 7.1x | 18 |
TWOTwo Harbors Investment Corp. | $1.3B | $12.09 | $13.50 | +11.7% | Hold | 10.6x | 22 |
IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | $564M | $7.87 | $7.50 | -4.7% | Hold | 3.8x | 20 |
DXDynex Capital, Inc. | $2.0B | $13.24 | $16.33 | +23.3% | Hold | 9.0x | 14 |
ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc. | $1.0B | $6.89 | $7.50 | +8.9% | Hold | 5.9x | 5 |
CHMICherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation | $84M | $2.29 | — | — | — | — | — |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying EARN stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for EARN is $7, representing 59.5% upside from the current price of $4.39. With 7 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
EARN has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 7 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 6 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $7 implies 59.5% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 4.9886x, EARN trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $7 implies 59.5% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $8 for EARN, while the most conservative target is $6. The consensus of $7 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $2 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
EARN is moderately covered, with 7 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 6 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month EARN stock forecast based on 7 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $7, with estimates ranging from $6 (bear case) to $8 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $2, with bear/bull scenarios of $1/$2.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates EARN's fair value at $2 (base case), with a bear case of $1 and bull case of $2. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 49/100.
EARN trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on EARN, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $7 price target (59.5% upside). 1 of 7 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
EARN analyst price targets range from $6 to $8, a 29% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $7 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $1-$2 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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