TopBuild Corp. (BLD) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 29 analysts38.4% Below Target
BLD trades 38.4% below Wall Street's consensus target of $490.33.
Current Price$354.25
Average Target$490.33
Target
Current
Low$360.00
Median$462.50
High$620.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E19.5x
(Fair)
PEG Ratio0.99
(Undervalued)
Implied Growth+1.4%
(Low)
Analyst Spread53.0%
(Moderate)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes BLD achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 19.5x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 29 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
BLD Price Target Analysis
Updated July 7, 2026As of July 7, 2026, TopBuild Corp. (BLD) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $490.33, based on estimates from 29 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $354.25, this represents a potential upside of +38.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $9.97B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $360.00 to a high of $620.00, representing a 53% spread in expectations. The median target of $462.50 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 18 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,11 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, BLD trades at a trailing P/E of 19.4x and forward P/E of 19.5x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.99 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +1.4% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $553.23, with bear and bull scenarios of $348.53 and $728.93 respectively. Model confidence stands at 54/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Industrials stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+11.4%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
24.4x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IBOCInternational Bancshares Corporation | $4.7B | $76.11 | $85.00 | +11.7% | Buy | 11.7x | 1 |
 IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc. | $6.1B | $225.74 | $252.60 | +11.9% | Hold | 22.3x | 27 |
 AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc. | $6.8B | $159.60 | $197.50 | +23.7% | Buy | 19.2x | 26 |
 AAONAAON, Inc. | $9.0B | $109.35 | $119.00 | +8.8% | Buy | 48.3x | 5 |
 AMWDAmerican Woodmark Corporation | $701M | $48.09 | $47.00 | -2.3% | Hold | 20.9x | 10 |
 TREXTrex Company, Inc. | $5.0B | $48.30 | $49.25 | +2.0% | Hold | 28.8x | 34 |
 OCOwens Corning | $11.8B | $146.79 | $150.13 | +2.3% | Hold | 15.5x | 43 |
 BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc. | $9.1B | $82.33 | $106.38 | +29.2% | Buy | 19.3x | 43 |
 EXPEagle Materials Inc. | $6.7B | $217.54 | $220.00 | +1.1% | Buy | 16.8x | 25 |
 LPXLouisiana-Pacific Corporation | $5.4B | $77.61 | $97.71 | +25.9% | Buy | 40.7x | 24 |
BLD — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying BLD stock.
What is the BLD stock price target for 2026?
The consensus Wall Street price target for BLD is $490.33, representing 38.4% upside from the current price of $354.25. With 29 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
Is BLD a buy, sell, or hold?
BLD has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 29 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 18 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $490.33 implies 38.4% upside from current levels.
Is BLD stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 19.5254x, BLD trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $490.33 implies 38.4% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can BLD stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $620 for BLD, while the most conservative target is $360. The consensus of $490.33 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $729 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover BLD stock?
BLD is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 29 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 18 have Buy ratings, 11 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the BLD stock forecast?
The 12-month BLD stock forecast based on 29 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $490.33, with estimates ranging from $360 (bear case) to $620 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $553, with bear/bull scenarios of $349/$729.
What is BLD's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates BLD's fair value at $553 (base case), with a bear case of $349 and bull case of $729. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 54/100.
What is BLD's forward P/E ratio?
BLD trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19.5x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 19.4x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy BLD stock?
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on BLD, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $490.33 price target (38.4% upside). 18 of 29 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do BLD price targets vary so much?
BLD analyst price targets range from $360 to $620, a 53% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $490.33 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $349-$729 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Consensus-Based Analysis Tools
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