American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jul 2, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 37 analysts7.4% Below Target
AAL trades 7.4% below Wall Street's consensus target of $19.06.
Current Price$17.75
Average Target$19.06
Target
Current
Low$13.50
Median$18.50
High$24.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E171.7x
(High Premium)
PEG Ratio—
Implied Growth-66.2%
(Declining)
Analyst Spread55.1%
(Moderate)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes AAL achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 171.7x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 37 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
AAL Price Target Analysis
Updated July 7, 2026As of July 7, 2026, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $19.06, based on estimates from 37 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $17.75, this represents a potential upside of +7.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $11.72B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $13.50 to a high of $24.00, representing a 55% spread in expectations. The median target of $18.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 17 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,17 rating it Hold, and 3 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, AAL trades at a trailing P/E of 104.4x and forward P/E of 171.7x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -66.2% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $57.32, with bear and bull scenarios of $36.11 and $75.52 respectively. Model confidence stands at 48/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Industrials stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+7.2%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
19.5x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
9 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. | $60.2B | $91.68 | $96.20 | +4.9% | Buy | 16.3x | 44 |
 UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $43.0B | $132.50 | $150.20 | +13.4% | Buy | 13.9x | 47 |
 LUVSouthwest Airlines Co. | $25.0B | $50.81 | $50.97 | +0.3% | Hold | 18.3x | 45 |
 JBLUJetBlue Airways Corporation | $2.3B | $6.06 | $5.83 | -3.8% | Hold | — | 36 |
 ALGTAllegiant Travel Company | $2.1B | $115.62 | $116.14 | +0.4% | Hold | 27.8x | 30 |
 SKYWSkyWest, Inc. | $4.0B | $98.75 | $115.00 | +16.5% | Buy | 9.1x | 17 |
 ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc. | $1.8B | $7.81 | $6.50 | -16.8% | Hold | — | 13 |
 MESAMesa Air Group, Inc. | $879M | $21.00 | — | — | Hold | 30.9x | 6 |
 SNCYSun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $876M | $16.17 | $21.00 | +29.9% | Buy | 20.5x | 11 |
 BAThe Boeing Company | $184.9B | $234.54 | $281.56 | +20.0% | Buy | — | 54 |
AAL — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AAL stock.
What is the AAL stock price target for 2026?
The consensus price target for AAL is $19.06, close to the current price of $17.75 (7.4% implied move). Based on 37 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
Is AAL a buy, sell, or hold?
AAL has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 37 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 17 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $19.06 implies 7.4% upside from current levels.
Is AAL stock overvalued or undervalued?
At a forward P/E of 171.6634x, AAL trades at a premium valuation. The consensus price target of $19.06 (7.4% upside) suggests analysts may view current valuations as stretched.
How high can AAL stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $24 for AAL, while the most conservative target is $13.5. The consensus of $19.06 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $76 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover AAL stock?
AAL is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 37 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 17 have Buy ratings, 17 recommend Hold, and 3 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the AAL stock forecast?
The 12-month AAL stock forecast based on 37 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $19.06, with estimates ranging from $13.5 (bear case) to $24 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $57, with bear/bull scenarios of $36/$76.
What is AAL's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AAL's fair value at $57 (base case), with a bear case of $36 and bull case of $76. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 48/100.
What is AAL's forward P/E ratio?
AAL trades at a forward P/E ratio of 171.7x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 104.4x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy AAL stock?
AAL appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Buy" rating and minimal upside to the $19.06 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do AAL price targets vary so much?
AAL analyst price targets range from $13.5 to $24, a 55% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $19.06 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $36-$76 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Consensus-Based Analysis Tools
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