The Motley Fool·6 days ago
Why First Watch Restaurant Group Topped the Market TodayShe feels its stock could appreciate by nearly 30%. The company has significant room for expansion, plus an interesting philosophy behind its business.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.(FWRG)Earnings, Financials & Key Ratios
FWRG•NASDAQ
$12.86
41.5× P/E·Price updated Jul 7, 2026
AboutFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 341 company-owned restaurants and 94 franchised restaurants in 28 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida.Show more
- Revenue$1.22B+20.3%
- EBITDA$109M+12.6%
- Net Income$19M+2.7%
- EPS (Diluted)0.31+3.3%
- Gross Margin13.04%-83.3%
- EBITDA Margin8.9%-6.4%
- Operating Margin2.76%-27.9%
- Net Margin1.59%-14.7%
- ROE3.18%-2.8%
FWRG Price & Volume
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock price & volume — 10-year historical chart
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Aggressive Unit Expansion Pressures Operating Margin Sustainability
Investment Thesis • Updated 2026Q1
VerdictNegative
Growth:Expanding
Profitability:Strained
Financial:Vulnerable
Cash Flow:Mixed
Primary Risk:Capital intensity outpacing cash
Key Thesis Takeaways
- First Watch Restaurant Group is pursuing an aggressive growth strategy characterized by rapid unit expansion and the re-acquisition of franchised locations, which has successfully driven top-line revenue growth of 17.3% as of 2026Q1.
- However, this expansion is currently outpacing the company's ability to achieve meaningful economies of scale, resulting in thin operating margins of 0.8% and a reliance on debt-funded capital expenditures.
- Investors should monitor the company's ability to transition from this high-intensity growth phase to sustainable profitability, given the persistent negative retained earnings of $37.1 million and the significant liquidity risks posed by a current ratio of 0.29.
Verdict Logic
the company's reliance on debt-funded expansion and the persistent struggle to maintain positive free cash flow, evidenced by a negative $17.8 million FCF in 2024Q4, suggest significant execution risks that outweigh current growth metrics.
FWRG Growth Metrics
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) revenue, earnings & EPS growth — 3, 5 & 10-year CAGR
Revenue CAGR
10 Years-
5 Years28.99%
3 Years18.74%
TTM20.41%
Profit CAGR
10 Years-
5 Years-
3 Years41.17%
TTM85.67%
EPS CAGR
10 Years-
5 Years-
3 Years41.25%
TTM66.71%
Return on Capital
10 Years0.47%
5 Years2.66%
3 Years3.06%
Last Year2.29%
FWRG Recent Earnings
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) EPS & revenue vs analyst estimates — last 4 quarters
●Beat EPS 6/12 qtrs (50%)●Beat Revenue 6/12 qtrs (50%)
Q2 2026Latest
May 5, 2026Metric
Actual
Est
EPS
$0.04-100.0%
$0.02
Rev
$331M+0.5%
$329M
Q1 2026
Feb 24, 2026Metric
Actual
Est
EPS
$0.24+200.0%
$0.08
Rev
$316M+0.0%
$316M
Q4 2025
Nov 4, 2025Metric
Actual
Est
EPS
$0.05-37.5%
$0.08
Rev
$316M-0.5%
$317M
Q3 2025
Aug 5, 2025Metric
Actual
Est
EPS
$0.03-57.1%
$0.07
Rev
$308M+0.6%
$306M
| Quarter | Date | EPS (Act vs Est) | Revenue (Act vs Est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026Latest | May 5, 2026 | $0.04vs $0.02-100.0% | $331Mvs $329M+0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | Feb 24, 2026 | $0.24vs $0.08+200.0% | $316Mvs $316M+0.0% |
| Q4 2025 | Nov 4, 2025 | $0.05vs $0.08-37.5% | $316Mvs $317M-0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | Aug 5, 2025 | $0.03vs $0.07-57.1% | $308Mvs $306M+0.6% |
Based on last 12 quarters of dataView full earnings history →
Latest FWRG News
Recent stock market news and headlines for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG)
Seeking Alpha·Jun 22, 2026
First Watch: A Long-Term Buy For Investors With The Stomach For RiskFirst Watch Restaurant Group is rated a Modest Buy, reflecting a balance between low current profitability and strong long-term growth potential. FWRG's aggressive expansion has driven revenue CAGR of 18.3% over three years, but operating margins compressed from 4.6% to 2.3% due to rising costs. Valuation is rich on earnings multiples (78x forward P/E), but price-to-sales is modest; the market is betting on future margin expansion.
The Motley Fool·Jun 21, 2026
After Cava's Surge, Here Are the 3 Best Consumer Stocks to Buy NowCava's success highlights the growing demand for health-focused, experience-driven restaurant brands. These three brands are following suit.
Peers Comparison
Key metrics vs top competitors for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG)
| Company | Price | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | Rev Growth (1Y) | Net Margin | ROE | Div Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.86 | $792.75M | 41.48 | 20.34% | 1.59% | 3.18% | — | |
| $6.25 | $321.87M | 15.24 | -2.5% | 2.24% | — | — | |
| $49.50 | $1.11B | 24.03 | 0.37% | 0.79% | 5.89% | — | |
| $60.26 | $1.27B | 27.90 | 3.08% | 3.15% | 11.97% | — | |
| $77.74 | $3.86B | 25.32 | 4.75% | 4.34% | 38.34% | — | |
| $6.60 | $122.1M | -5.04 | -3.07% | -2.23% | — | — |
Compare FWRG vs Peers
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.
FWRG SEC Filings & Documents
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)
8-K Announcements
6Material company update
May 5, 2026·SEC
Material company update
Mar 27, 2026·SEC
Material company update
Feb 24, 2026·SEC
10-K Annual Reports
310-Q Quarterly Reports
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FWRG Frequently Asked Questions
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained
Growth & Financials
What is First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s revenue?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) reported $1.27B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 263% increase from $349.8M in 2018.
How fast is First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. growing?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) grew revenue by 20.3% over the past year. This is strong growth.
Is FWRG profitable?
Yes, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) is profitable, generating $17.6M in net income for fiscal year 2025 (1.6% net margin).
Dividend & Returns
What is FWRG's return on equity?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) has a return on equity (ROE) of 3.2%. This is below average, suggesting room for improvement.
What is First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s free cash flow?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) had negative free cash flow of $9.5M in fiscal year 2025, likely due to heavy capital investments.