Saratoga Investment Corp. (SAY)
Valuation Overview•Is Saratoga Investment Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 43/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral with steady expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
SAY demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 46.3% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $30.8M | +5.4% | — | — | +15.1% | |
| EBITDA | $22.6M | — | +12.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$5.9M | +30.3% | +14.0% | — | +12.1% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.42 | +14.4% | +3.9% | +11.8% | +1.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$26.0M | -144.6% | +12.3% | -7.1% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 56.6% | 41.4% | 50.1% | 59.4% |
| Operating Margin | 46.3% | 29.7% | 38.0% | 45.8% |
| Net Margin | 16.6% | 26.5% | 34.8% | 42.6% |
| FCF Margin | -145.3% | -35.0% | -110.8% | -90.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.56 | $0.53 | -5.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.59 | $0.61 | +3.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.66 | $0.58 | -12.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.72 | $0.91 | +26.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.70 | $-2.07 | -394.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.86 | $0.90 | +4.0% | ||
| Q4'23 | — | $-0.31 | — | ||
| Q3'23 | — | $0.65 | — |
Total return is +8.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -12.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +3.9% | -3.0% | — |
| 1Y | +8.2% | -12.5% | +8.0% |
| 3YCAGR | +7.9% | -11.3% | +24.3% |
| 5YCAGR | +5.6% | -6.0% | +28.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +2.8% | -11.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.4x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Saratoga Investment Corp. (SAY) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Saratoga Investment Corp. appears Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Saratoga Investment Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $20.54. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Saratoga Investment Corp. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 43/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 2.5%.
Saratoga Investment Corp. pays a 13.0% dividend yield, covered by a 143% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Saratoga Investment Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +5.4% 1Y revenue growth and +14.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Saratoga Investment Corp. include: -69.8% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.54x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.