In H1 2026, part of my 2026 framework was confirmed: AI‑driven productivity, industrial strength, and utilities' power‑demand tailwinds played out, while the Iran shock created the only major deviation from expectations. However, the macro backdrop is changing: Brent is back in contango, Warsh is firmly higher‑for‑longer, growth and labor remain resilient, and hyperscalers continue pushing toward trillion‑dollar cumulative AI capex.




