AMBP trades 4.8% above Wall Street's consensus target of $4.52.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AMBP achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 19.2x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 6 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of July 8, 2026, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $4.52, based on estimates from 6 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $4.75, this represents a potential downside of -4.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.84B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $4.25 to a high of $5.00, representing a 17% spread in expectations. The median target of $4.30 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,4 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, AMBP trades at a trailing P/E of -258.2x and forward P/E of 19.2x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +1246.2% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $1.07, with bear and bull scenarios of $0.68 and $1.42 respectively. Model confidence stands at 52/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BALLBall Corporation | $16.7B | $62.66 | $70.25 | +12.1% | Buy | 15.7x | 23 |
CCKCrown Holdings, Inc. | $12.6B | $112.48 | $120.50 | +7.1% | Buy | 13.9x | 25 |
ATIATI Inc. | $25.1B | $183.26 | $175.00 | -4.5% | Buy | 41.5x | 29 |
SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc. | $4.8B | $45.18 | $50.50 | +11.8% | Buy | 11.9x | 21 |
SONSonoco Products Company | $5.6B | $56.49 | $59.00 | +4.4% | Buy | 9.7x | 21 |
PKGPackaging Corporation of America | $20.7B | $232.40 | $251.60 | +8.3% | Hold | 22.5x | 26 |
IPInternational Paper Company | $20.1B | $37.92 | $46.75 | +23.3% | Buy | 27.4x | 29 |
SEESealed Air Corporation | $6.2B | $42.15 | $49.92 | +18.4% | Buy | 12.4x | 27 |
GPKGraphic Packaging Holding Company | $3.1B | $10.51 | $12.20 | +16.1% | Buy | 12.3x | 27 |
AAAlcoa Corporation | $12.9B | $49.01 | $72.50 | +47.9% | Buy | 6.4x | 42 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AMBP stock.
Wall Street's consensus price target for AMBP is $4.52, -4.8% from its current price of $4.75. The below-market target from 6 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
AMBP has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 6 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 4 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $4.52 implies -4.8% downside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 19.1764x, AMBP trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $4.52 implies -4.8% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $5 for AMBP, while the most conservative target is $4.25. The consensus of $4.52 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $1 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AMBP is moderately covered, with 6 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 4 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AMBP stock forecast based on 6 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $4.52, with estimates ranging from $4.25 (bear case) to $5 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $1, with bear/bull scenarios of $1/$1.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AMBP's fair value at $1 (base case), with a bear case of $1 and bull case of $1. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 52/100.
AMBP trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on AMBP, with 1 Sell ratings and a price target of $4.52 (-4.8% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AMBP analyst price targets range from $4.25 to $5, a 17% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $4.52 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $1-$1 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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